India's Loss Or Profit-let's discuss
In this article we will try and understand what is India's gain from the Afghanistan issue The first thing that you have to understand is that Afghanistan is not very far away from India. If you look at the P okay region, that is what is coming in between India and the Afghan border this pook region is part of India.
But that's a different story how and when it was illegally captured by Pakistan it has a long story behind it anyhow. So, the Afghanistan border is not very far away from India's line of control I believe It is somewhere around two 100 to 2 50 kilometers Not more than that, it is just the pook region that is coming in between and as we know, pook is a disputed territory. It is not settled yet Through Afghanistan India can easily access Central Asia.
That is why Afghanistan will always be strategically important for India. By the way. Any country that wants to reach Central Asia from South Asia, either to do business with the Central Asian countries or challenge Russia, the only two countries that always acted as a gateway to Central Asia are Pakistan and Afghanistan. The first is Pakistan. And then you also have to cross Afghanistan. As you can see Afghanistan is landlocked, Pakistan has access to the Arabian sea. So if at all, one has to reach Central Asia, they have to either go through Iranian or Pakistani seaports again, I'm only saying concerning South Asia. If at all you want to access Central Asia from South Asia, Iran and Pakistan seaports are the only viable options now among Iran and Pakistan? If one has to choose the gateway that will depend on who do you consider as your enemy or ally?
The contribution of Pakistan And Iran
If you look at Pakistan and Iran both have their political-diplomatic as well as religious differences. One is a Sunni country, the other is a Shia majority. Their ideologies are different. Their political affiliations are different. For example, India takes the help of Iran to reach Afghanistan because India and Pakistan are enemies to each other. Similarly, the United States after 9 11 used to reach Afghanistan through Pakistan Even today, if china has to reach Afghanistan, they have to pass through Pakistan. Although China has a direct border with Afghanistan, then China has heavily invested in Pakistan's road infrastructures So it makes sense for China to use that Since 1947 Pakistan has only two illusions. One is Kashmir and to their countries of strategically important for the world to reach Central Asia, there is an old saying don't oversell yourself. That is where Pakistan is stuck now they have overplayed their strategic importance card.
Now the world has said, we don't want to go through Pakistan, you keep your land to yourself. That is why now that the United States has left Afghanistan? Pakistan is worried, how are they going to fit themselves in the great power confrontation between the United States and China, Joe Biden has not spoken to Imran khan till now, even after taking such a big decision of withdrawing from Afghanistan for 20 years, the United States has been providing much-needed support to Pakistan in exchange from Pakistan's assistance in the war on terror by the way. This is also the reason why the United States has always kept India somewhat away from many political negotiations over Afghanistan. Now, the U. S. Is not interested in Pakistan. So it's a good thing for India Similarly when China's foreign minister met with senior leaders of the Taliban, do you think the call went through Pakistan?
Know from the past couple of years, the world started looking at India and china's bitter rivals It is not like that India's trade with China is almost close to $100 billion a year. That is not a small amount So you cannot think of India and china's enemies. They have disagreements, but business must go on because both India and china focus on economic money to fight. Also, you need money anyhow, you get my point. So even china is directly talking to the Taliban Pakistan is isolated Which is a good thing for India. Even Iran is talking to the Taliban directly, If you remember 23 years ago Taliban murdered 11 Iranian diplomats and a journalist in Mazar E Sharif. This incident nearly sparked a war between the two countries. You can imagine the Taliban has an overly negative image in Iran, but then Iran also badly wanted the United States to be out of Afghanistan this way today.
Even Iran is talking to the Taliban. This is not hypocrisy, it is pure diplomacy. Iran has its own strategic economic, ideological, and ecological reasons to support the Taliban who are Sunni extremists. They have even started supplying fuel to the Taliban regime. But if you have washed my video, what is China's interest in Afghanistan in that I have mentioned china wants to reach Kabul so that it can reach Iran's Persian gulf Caspian sea and towards the Middle East. China has recently signed M. O. use with Iran worth $400 billion And I have also said the Taliban is heavily funded by the Chinese plus Iran got its new president. Ibrahim Raissi you have to understand that the reason behind this election was the struggling Iranian economy and he is viewed by the Iranian public as someone who has the potential to get Iran out of US sanctions because Iran is a nuclear state In 2015.
Iran sang the J. c p. o. An agreement. As for the agreement, Iran agreed to dismantle some of its nuclear programs and opened its facilities to international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars worth of sanctions relief. But in 2018 Trump canceled the agreement. That meant the United States under Trump imposed more sanctions on Iran and that also affected ties between Iran and India India stopped purchasing Iranian oil halted development projects in Cherbourg port in return, Iran removed India from Farzad B gas fields even though it was Indian company ONGC that had discovered it. Iran also removed India from the Saigon railway project near Iran. Afghan border. Iran also began raising the Kashmir issue regularly in a natural while India moved closer to the U. S. During trump presidency, Iran started distancing itself from India and started tending towards china but now we are hearing that due to the arrival of the new Iranian president India's again rebuilding ties with Iran.
Indian External Minister Jack Shenker was invited to attend the Ibrahim Rices swearing-in ceremony that took place on August six after joe biden's arrival United States has started talks with Iran for reinstating the J. C. P. O. Agreement. That means our sanctions on Iran will also reduce the new President of Iran is focused on improving Iran's economy. India has also resumed its operation at Iran's chopper port. So I am not saying indian Iran's relation was bad, it was purely diplomacy It is again rebuilding it is more of like you don't mess with me and I will not mess with you. But one thing to remember is that now china has joined hands with Iran. That means now for Iran, both India and china too large economies are its clients but India cannot invest money as much as the chinese can. In simple words, India will not be able to write bigger checks when compared to china.
So here I feel India will not only benefit from Iran in terms of trade and economy, India will also get direct access to Afghanistan through land and air, like how it used to be. But then Iran and Taliban are in direct talks with China. Pakistan is nowhere in between. At least. It has no strategic importance. Even Taliban has openly said it has no interest in Kashmir if India does not interfere in Afghanistan's internal matter. Because you see historically Taliban has controlled Afghanistan from 1990 6 - 2001 During that time, some factions of Taliban had contributed to militancy and conflict in Kashmir which was directly sponsored by Pakistan. For example, it was the Taliban that escorted terrorists into Pakistan Following the hijacking of an Indian Airlines flight in 1999. You can even cross-check when did militancy start in Kashmir It started during the end of the Soviet Afghan war in 1989 Pakistani army and I see created Lashkar E Tayyiba Jesse more meth.
Little History Of Afghanistan
These organizations are affiliates of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. All their leaders have soviet Afghan war experience, the Pakistani army and I see are responsible for creating this religious militancy. They ordered them to do jihad in Kashmir in the name of religion. That means when the Taliban gained control of Afghanistan on August 15 India had concerns concerning its internal security because the situation in Afghanistan could potentially have an indirect effect in the Indian subcontinent. But then the Taliban has openly said they have no interest in Kashmir. However, India will not let off its card. After all, the Taliban can say a lot of things in front of the camera, you cannot start believing everything right. You have to monitor the behaviors anyhow. My point is, Taliban is not talking to Pakistan, as I've said In my previous videos, this is not the 1990 four Taliban that Pakistan Army and Esa had raised.
So no one is talking to Pakistan. Pakistan is Desperate, Why No one is inviting them. Why Taliban china United States is not giving any importance to Pakistan. They are dictating terms to Pakistan and this is a good thing for India. There are a couple of Reasons. one Pakistan will not receive any extra funding, which it uses for sponsoring terror in Kashmir To Pakistan is already struggling with its economy Their inflation rate is all-time high. They have huge debt. Their own creation, that is Taliban is not under full control, then radicalization is at its peak inside Pakistan. They are also facing the Afghan refugee crisis If you remember back in the eighties, during the Afghan Soviet war, more than three million Afghan refugees entered Pakistan, that will again happen and it is happening now. Taliban has said, Pakistan to open its border because, in Islamic law, Visa and passport have no meaning So, if you analyze all these things, Pakistan is cornered and that is good for India for 40 years, Pakistan has been playing the role of a middleman.
First during the Afghan Soviet war and then after 9 11, Pakistan made use of American funds to train militants to fight the Soviets and India in the Puk region during the 80s. Then after 9-11, we have been providing much-needed support to Pakistan in exchange for Pakistan's assistance in Afghanistan War. And that is also the reason why the United States has always kept India somewhat away from many political negotiations over Afghanistan This way. After 40 years, Pakistan has been successfully isolated, both by its child, that is Taliban and by its masters Now the only concern is regarding pook region. The Indian government has an openly short interest in integrating Pook with India. And it is also a dream of every Indian to see pook part of India. There is no doubt it will happen one day when that happens India will have direct access to the Afghan border. But there is also a caveat If you see china's Sinopec passes through Gilgit Baltistan and pook region till going to another seaport in Balochistan India has also expressed strong opposition to Cpac As I said, India considers pook region its territory I want you to just think about it.
Investment Of China in Afghanistan
China has invested around $50 billion in CPAc project, which is part of China's one belt, one road initiative, Cpac passes through P okay, which is a disputed territory, and please don't think for a second, that China does not know it. China is very well aware of it. That means Kashmir is a territorial dispute between India and Pakistan and China has no problem interfering in it. I mean just think about it. If there is a dispute between two people, why will the third person invest money in it? There has to be a greater reason to do That means china has a deep hidden interest. As for the Indian intelligence report, most of the Pakistani-funded terror launch parts are in Pook region and china has built roads in pook region. That means these terror camps will not harm china as long as Sipek exists in Pakistan India's occupation of Pook will also be against china's interests.
The Pakistani army has a unit dedicated to protecting Chinese nationals. And Sipek infrastructure china will never put even a single Chinese soldier in Pakistan or Afghanistan. It will throw money and make the Pakistani army or Taliban guard, the Chinese infrastructures In my last video, I have said this for china Pakistan, and the Taliban. A change of security guards. Now look at the twist to protect pook from falling in the hands of India, Pakistan has always used Cpac as a bargaining chip in negotiating with the Chinese government but that has never worked. It is the Chinese who dictate terms to Pakistan and not the other way and now in Afghanistan, we have seen the rise of the northern alliance against the Taliban. So all those countries who are against china will fund the Northern alliance. Even the Taliban will have fractures. If you see Taliban is not a single homogeneous entity, but rather a collection of semi-autonomous networks.
Afghanistan is a country of warlords. So Northern Alliance will get funding from all those who are against China, Pakistan's Northwestern side is the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region. In this region. Many Pashtuns are against the Taliban regime. They condemned the United States to deal with the Taliban because they believe that it will practically legitimize the militant group. Pashtun tapas movement is also very active and that is a major fault line of Pakistan in the form of Pashtun nationalism. Then Tehrik Taliban Pakistan is the most active armed opposition group in Pakistan. It consists of several small groups operating in tribal areas of Pakistan, basically in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. TTP has always been mostly entirely Pashtun in composition, Pakistan says that TTP is funded by India. Then why Taliban released several top commanders of TTP. There are videos on the internet where you will find fighters of Taliban and TTP eating together taking oaths and allegiance to the Emperor of Afghanistan.
So, the Afghan Taliban and TTP have links with each other They have similar ideologies. Yes, I agree, sometimes they have minor disagreements, but at the code, they are the same. The only difference is TDP wants to establish its rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa origin and also make it an independent state and the Afghan Taliban wants to rule the whole of Afghanistan. They both opposed and support each other at different points in time. They are part of the same umbrella organization. So, in Pakistan Pashtun nationalism in the form of TTP is violent. And then Pashtun nationalism is also active in the civil society, in the form of the Pashtun Tavis movement So this is a huge internal problem for Pakistan. See you have to understand this Pakistani army and I say supports the Taliban purely for strategic reasons. They also believe Afghan Taliban will help them to get Kashmir Now coming to the civil society in Pakistan, they support the Taliban largely due to their fascination with Islam If you see Pakistan's separation from India was done based on religion.
Two Nation Theory
Genus two Nation theory, that is why many Pakistanis believed that the Afghan Taliban are the true definition of Islam. But then, as I have said, the Taliban is not talking to Pakistan on any international matter. Neither, it is inviting Pakistan to any meetings Taliban is getting direct calls from china Iran, and other nation heads because the Taliban is aware of Pakistan's double standard. On one hand, Pakistan will extend support to the Afghan Taliban. You know, they will clap for them. But on the other hand, Pakistan will also maintain leverage with the United States by offering their airspace for attacking the Taliban. That is why Afghan Taliban and terry Taliban. Pakistan has never said that they are different. It is only the Pakistani media that says GDP is funded by raw. Both Afghan Taliban and TTP are part of the same umbrella organization You can think of TTP as one of the Taliban's guards who keeps a check on the Pakistani establishment.
If it all Pakistan tries to act smart and I will also tell you why the Taliban does that? Because even today Taliban families continue to live under the close watch of the icy, they both have eyes on each other. Even the CIA is aware of it. Just think about it. If the United States was fighting the Taliban for 20 years, In fact, 2020 how did the United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha. It cannot be done without Pakistan's input. Pakistan's Foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi was present during the peace deal signing in Doha. So the US Taliban in Pakistan, all three are the reason behind us Afghan Taliban peace deal. In simple words, it was pre-planned to legitimize the militant group this way, we repositioned itself, Pakistan had to stay quiet. It had no other option and the Taliban got easy access to Afghanistan.
In my first video about Afghanistan, I have mentioned as soon as the United States leaves, there will be chaos in this region again and the U. S. S. Very clever. They know that China India Iran Pakistan Taliban and other neighboring countries will conspire against each other. Us Taliban peace deal has legitimized the terror group and now large scale migration that is happening to nearby countries Don't you think the United States was not aware of this As I've said, the Taliban is not a homogeneous entity with this large scale migration, thousands of Taliban sympathizers, as well as terrorists, have also boarded the flight and got a legal entry into nearby countries. Do you think us is not aware of this? Or maybe they must have done it intentionally? It's probably in their playbook But anyhow, Pashtun nationalism and large-scale migration from Afghanistan is the biggest concern for Pakistan Pakistan's establishment knows this, that is why Pakistan continues to support the Taliban simply because they don't have any other choice.
Now, when Pakistan is stuck badly with many of its internal matters, do you think it will be that easy for Pakistan to focus on be okay, issue. This is where I believe India has to wait and watch the situation in Pakistan will heat up very soon. If India doesn't want to wait, then it can continue maintaining its influence in Afghanistan. But I believe India will wait. All consulates are closed in Afghanistan Now, I'm going to give my hypothesis economy huge external debt, Pashtun nationalism, large scale migration, Tariq I Taliban radicalization at its peak, no external funding for proxy war Grey list and 50 EV no strategic leverage to sell dissatisfaction among warlords in Afghanistan all these things will create a headache for Pakistan and it has already started as and when the pot gets hot pook will be isolated. Just like how the Taliban has said that they will not destroy any Indian investment in Afghanistan.
They will make use of it. Similarly, India can also say to the Chinese, we will not destroy your infrastructure. In P okay, India, china can get into some kind of a deal. The Chinese are interested in business after all. Whether it is India Pakistan Taliban, Iran, or whoever it is, a lot like a game of chess, you move different pieces to reach your objective The only difference is in the real game of chess, you play to checkmate the king. But in international relations, you don't have to checkmate anything. You have to create a situation where things work in your favor. The objective is to stabilize or maybe sometimes you do need to checkmate. So that is how the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan has allowed India for building new equities. India has to make some uncomfortable choices and reposition its strategic actions to protect its fundamental interests which are acquiring the Pook region and maintain its presence in Afghanistan.